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The fight for $ 10,000

On Sunday, the Bitcoin exchange broke through the 10. 000 – Dollar threshold to fall through it again Monday morning. A look at what is happening on the stock exchanges with some data – from the transaction volume to Google trends to the price trend of some altcoins.

Round numbers are in themselves only a cosmetic specialty in a continuum of numbers. However, some thresholds have something magical. Just like you celebrate round birthdays and anniversaries, the 10. 000 – Dollar mark for the Bitcoin exchange rate a special threshold.

At the weekend, the Bitcoin price broke this threshold again. After the price had been in a clear upward trend for the whole of the last month, it achieved good at the weekend .) 100 dollars. For about 2.5 days the price could be over 10. 000 hold dollar, then fall back into the four-digit range. Since then it has been oscillating between 9. 700 and 9. 900 dollars, as if it were on the move to get five digits again and just want to take a breath – or as if he would hesitate for a moment and then plunge again. While I was writing this, there was a jump that Bitcoin back over the 10. 000 dollar raised. So it seems to be an exciting fight.

Even if you look at the course a little longer, an extremely positive impression remains:

The long-term Bitcoin price according to CoinMarketCap

This chart shows the price trend since the middle 2013. How do we continue to see the huge peak 2018, which is still unmatched. But if we connect the low points before the big bubble in spring 2019 and end 2019 , reveals a clear upward trend, which could be nicely drawn as an upward curve. There seem to be forces in the market that are looking for exponential growth.

Can this exponential growth also be confirmed in other values? We look at various data points below to answer this question.

Volume

If you take a closer look at the last chart, you will see gray columns standing closely next to each other below the green price trend. These represent the trading volume measured by CoinMarketCap on all exchanges. And that is clearly on the upswing as is the price; it is currently significantly higher than in January 2018, and is continuously striving for a new all-time high. However, it is not entirely clear how solid the data is , and whether part of the volume is counterfeited by some exchanges that CoinMarketCap has not yet sorted out, or is produced by so-called “wash trading”.

An interesting, probably more meaningful addition to this is the weekly trading volume on LocalBitcoins. This exchange serves markets in almost every country in the world by allowing people to exchange bitcoins for fiat money. It is often a solid indicator of how Bitcoin is in demand, especially in emerging markets, since the trades on LocalBitcoins usually represent real demand. For example in Chile:

Weekly trading volume on LocalBitoins Chile. Source: Coin.Dance

This chart is relatively typical for LocalBitcoins. We find the almost identical pattern for Kazakhstan, although it has been worked out more sharply:

The trading volume reflects the course of the price. It peaked in July last year, but is falling again from there. In Chile it seems to have reached a bottom from which it rises again, in Kazakhstan this cannot yet be said. In both cases, however, we see a stable trading volume that is tending to increase, which indicates a constant need for Bitcoin in many emerging countries.

transactions

A look at the transaction volume shows no increased activity on the blockchain.

The transaction volume is still well below the top end 2017, but has recovered significantly from the slump that followed. In July last year, when the price was around 12. 000 dollar reached its highest value after the bubble, the number of transactions rose again significantly; together with the course, it fell from there, albeit too drastically, and is now on the upward trend again. In the long term this could look like strong growth, but again not an explosive one, but rather a slow, creeping one. Since this trend has little room for improvement due to the limited space on the blockchain, no significant growth is to be expected here.

The Lightning network, which scales Bitcoin offchain, has much more potential. However, no trend towards increased use can be seen here:

This chart shows the number of public payment channels in the Lightning network. Since then in April 2019 has reached its provisional high point, the number has dropped significantly, but has since stabilized. As with all other values, a slight and quiet upward trend can be noticed here. A similar picture shows the capacity of the public channels in Bitcoin:

Capacity of public Lightning channels according to Bitcoin Visuals.

The largely stagnating number of Lightning channels is therefore not accompanied by an increase in their capacity. There is nothing to suggest that the Lightning network is growing as a form of payment – even if the two values ​​can say little about how many transactions actually go through the Lightning network. It is possible that despite the stagnation of channels, the number of transactions that happen will increase rapidly. However, there is nothing to suggest this, and so far the only values ​​we have are the ones we have just shown.

If it is not apparent that the number of transactions is increasing – could not their value increase? This would mean that Bitcoin does not scale by transaction quantity, but by its quality, which would be as good if not better. However, this cannot be read from the charts either:

This volume has increased over the past 30 days not significantly changed. There are, after all, two slightly steeper peaks and two somewhat higher lows. But this doesn't seem to be a clear trend. Over the course of the year we see almost the same pattern as for the values ​​above: There is a slight, non-explosive increase, which, however, still did not reach the level of the peak last summer.

The dollar -Volume of daily transactions during the year according to blockchain.com

searches

An inspection of Google trends also reveals little. The search queries for Bitcoin are stable. There is no outbreak to be seen here.

If we zoom out this chart for a longer period of time, we get the same picture as so often: there is no trend towards an explosion, but stability at a relatively high level and slow, delicate growth.

Bitcoin is stable in almost every way. There may not be the growth many have hoped for, and in some cases one could speak of years of stagnation. However, there are no slumps, but a solid and increasing demand for Bitcoin and blockchain transactions.

All of this results, I think, not an immediate reason for a spontaneous outbreak, but overall a very positive picture, especially given the 86 days ahead halving the creation of new bitcoins by the miners. If Bitcoin maintains this stability coupled with gentle growth, this promises a rosy outlook for investors.

But what about other coins? We look at how the top coins performed in the ranking based on market capitalization.

Altcoins

First of all, it should be noted that Bitcoin's price gains flowed directly to Altcoins. The Bitcoin Dominance Index has exceeded 65 percent on good 63 percent fell , the vast majority of altcoins have made gains above those of Bitcoin.

Most of the top performers of the last 24 hours is on the pitches 50 to 100 in the ranking of cryptocurrencies and has in won ten to twenty percent in many cases, in exceptional cases significantly more. The trading volume of the altcoins on the exchanges has increased significantly, I have added up the volume of all coins except Bitcoin as long as this is via 500 million dollars in 24 hours. It was about 10 – 20 percent more than that of Bitcoin.

Altcoin courses in BTC

Most top coins have caught up noticeably against Bitcoin in the past seven days. We look at the most important of them:

Ethereum rate in Bitcoin over the last 7 days after CoinMarketCap.

The price of ether (ETH) has been 0 over the past few days, 02 Bitcoin to around 0, 0226 Bitcoin increased. This results in around the existing Euro profit from Bitcoin again 13 Percentage profit calculated in Bitcoin.

7-day exchange rate of Bitcoin Cash in BTC.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) performed similarly, from 0, 041 BTC to 0, 045 BTC has risen. This also results in an additional profit of good 10 percent. We find even stronger profits in the “dark shadow” of Bitcoin Cash, namely Bitcoin SV:

Here we have an increase of about 0, 03 BTC to more than 0, 036 BTC, i.e. an increase of around 20 percent.

Ripple (XRP), on the other hand, looks less rosy:

The rate decreased by approximately 10 percent versus Bitcoin. IOTA also gave around 10 percent of Bitcoin.

Litcoin and Dash are somewhat neutral, both of which have made profits in the small single-digit percentage range compared to Bitcoin.

But let's go away from the battle on the exchanges and look at whether altcoins have actually caught up with Bitcoin for tangible reasons. Speculation is nice, but without real applications and solid demand, it remains a house of cards.

Altcoins on Google

If we look at Google trends, Bitcoin's dominance remains undefeated:

We have looked up the ticker symbols of the five largest cryptocurrencies for the sake of simplicity. This shows the clear dominance of Bitcoin, especially in the countries where there is an increased search volume – Botswana, Slovenia, Nigeria and Venezuela – far above the 60 percent lies in the markets and tends to 90 percent or more tends. That could suggest that where there is a real demand for using cryptocurrencies, altcoins play almost no role.

While Ethereum and Ripple have a small, stable share, which is around a quarter of Bitcoin each, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV are far behind.

If we look at the altcoins themselves, this picture solidifies:

We deleted Bitcoin (BTC) from the search terms, wrote out the other abbreviations and added Tether. As it turns out, Ethereum and Ripple share attention, and Ethereum seems to be catching up here. It is interesting here that Ripple generates more search volume in North America, Russia, India and Australia, while Ethereum generates more in Latin America, Africa and Europe. However, the search term “Ripple” can hide something else than just the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin cash and tether, on the other hand, seem to be much less in demand in most countries.

transactions

Finally, let's take a look at what happens on the respective blockchains. An important indicator is again the general transaction volume, which we can overlap at Bitinfochart.

This chart shows that Ripple with 800. 000 to 1. 000. 000 transaction is the most used blockchain, followed by Ethereum with 500. 000 to 660. 000 and Bitcoin SV With 400. 000 until about 600. 000. Bitcoin forms with around 300. 000 Transactions on the day a rather deep, stable line, while Bitcoin Cash is currently around 50. 000 transactions slightly upward, and Litecoin mostly with less than 30. 000 stagnated.

Again, however, the question of the number of transactions may be much less important than that of their quality. How many values, measured in dollars, are sent via the blockchains? With this question, the previous chart is almost upside down:

Bitcoin carries with it by far 10 – 20 billion dollars a day, followed by Bitcoin Cash, which at $ 0.8-1.2 billion does not even count on 10 percent of Bitcoin comes. Ethereum mostly moves between 150 and 400 Millions Dollars, Litecoin a little bit below, and Bitcoin SV has very fluctuating amounts, sometimes just 50 can make millions, but also on more than 500 million dollars can rise. Unfortunately for Ripple there is no data on Bitinfocharts.

This chart could once again confirm that “real use”, i.e. that of serious value transfer, is concentrated on Bitcoin, while Altcoins are more experimental and playful applications.

It must be emphasized that both charts convey very fuzzy values. The number of transactions can be watered down by many factors. At Bitcoin SV that would be stress tests and data transactions, at Bitcoin Cash Memo data transactions and CashShuffle, at Bitcoin mixing transactions by CoinJoin. It is also difficult to make solid data on the values ​​actually transferred, because all coins occurring here, except Ethereum, are based on a UTXO system and it is never clearly possible to determine which output goes to a recipient and which flows back to the sender as change , In addition, it is rarely possible to say whether a transaction actually manifests a payment or whether someone is simply sending money from the right wallet to the left wallet.

Therefore, these values ​​should be used with great caution. At most, they are indications of activities with coins. Nevertheless, I hope that this data overview has provided some insights.